The Cardio Number That Predicts How Long You'll Live

Why VO2 Max Matters More After 60

There’s one fitness number that predicts how long you’ll live more accurately than your blood pressure, your cholesterol, or whether you smoke. It’s called VO2 max, and most people over 60 have never heard of it.

That’s a problem, because VO2 max is one of the few markers of aging that you can easily improve through training. And the improvements translate into more years of independent, capable living.

This month, I’ll explain what VO2 max is, why it matters so much after 60, and how to actually train it. I’ll also share my own number from a sports lab test, and what I’m doing this summer to push it higher.

Joe Burjoski (Age 65)

Zone 2: Building Your Aerobic Foundation

If you’re new to cardio after 60, the smartest place to start is zone 2 training — steady cardio performed at a pace that’s challenging but sustainable.

The simplest way to find zone 2 is the talk test. You should be able to speak in full sentences, but not comfortably hold a conversation. If you can sing, you’re going too easy. If you can only get out a few words at a time, you’re going too hard.

Brisk walking (my favorite), light cycling, swimming, and rowing all work beautifully in this zone. The goal is duration, not intensity. Aim for 30 to 60 minutes, three or four times a week. This builds a powerful aerobic base.

Zone 2 builds cardio-respiratory foundation. It develops mitochondria, improves fat burning, and gives your heart and lungs the engine they need to handle harder work. But zone 2 alone isn’t the fastest way to raise your VO2 max. For that, you need to push harder sometimes. More on that below.

Start with Zone 2. Stay consistent. Then add intensity later.

My VO2 Max Test: What I Learned From a Sports Lab

In July 2023, I had my VO2 max tested at a sports performance lab. They strapped on a mask, put me on a treadmill, and ramped up the intensity until I couldn’t go any further.

My number came back at 37.7, which placed me in the “Excellent” category for my age. What surprised the technician was that my only cardio training at the time was brisk walking. No running. No cycling. No HIIT. Just consistent, brisk walking, most days every week.

You don’t need extreme training to build excellent cardio fitness after 60. Consistency does most of the work.

But I’m also not done improving. This summer, I’m testing again. As part of my prep for a Tough Mudder obstacle race in the fall, I’ve added HIIT to my training, and my Garmin currently estimates my VO2 max at 42. The “Superior” cutoff for my age is 44.2 — that’s the number I’m chasing.

I’ll share the results when they come in.

Pushing Higher: HIIT and Action Bursts

If zone 2 is the foundation, short bursts of high-intensity effort are what move your VO2 max higher. The research is clear: brief, vigorous activity produces bigger fitness gains than steady cardio alone.

“High intensity” doesn’t have to mean a gym, a track, or a spin class. A landmark 2022 study from the University of Sydney found that ordinary people who built short bursts of vigorous activity into daily life — climbing stairs fast, walking briskly uphill, carrying groceries with purpose — saw remarkable benefits. Over the seven-year study, they had a 40% lower risk of early death and a nearly 50% lower risk of fatal heart attack.

Researchers call this VILPA — Vigorous Intermittent Lifestyle Physical Activity. I call them Action Bursts.

Aim for three Action Bursts per day, one to two minutes each. Climb a flight of stairs fast. Walk briskly from the far end of the parking lot. Rake leaves with intensity. Your heart rate should climb and your breathing should deepen — that’s the signal it’s working.

You don’t need a gym to push your VO2 max. You need consistency and a little more “oomph” in things you already do.